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2017年11月19日 14:31:40|来源:国际在线|编辑:泡泡面诊
New Evidence on van Gogh’s Ear Continues Debate on Painter’s Mental State梵高真的割下了自己的整只耳朵吗?AMSTERDAM — Everyone knows that Vincent van Gogh cut off his left ear. But since that fateful event nearly 128 years ago, there has been continuing debate among scholars about the severity of that mutilation, which took place in Arles, France, in December 1888. Did he simply slice off a little chunk of his ear, or did he lop off the entire ear?阿姆斯特丹——大家都知道文森特·梵高(Vincent van Gogh)割掉了自己的左耳。不过,自从近128年前那个重大事件发生后,学者们对于1888年12月发生在法国阿尔勒的那次自残的严重程度一直存在争议。他是只割掉了一小块耳朵还是割掉了整只耳朵?The author and amateur historian Bernadette Murphy, while researching the last period of that Dutch Post Impressionist’s life for a new book, discovered a document in an American archive that may help resolve the issue. A note written by Félix Rey, a doctor who treated van Gogh at the Arles hospital, contains a drawing of the mangled ear showing that the artist indeed cut off the whole thing.作家、史学爱好者贝尔纳黛特·墨菲(Bernadette Murphy)为写新书研究了这位荷兰后印象派画家人生的最后一个时期。她在美国的一个档案馆发现了一份文件,可能有助于解开这个谜团。费利克斯·雷伊(Félix Rey)是在阿尔勒医院为梵高治疗的医生,他在一封短笺中画下了被割掉的耳朵,表明这位艺术家真的割下了整只耳朵。The letter and drawing will be displayed for the first time at the Van Gogh Museum’s exhibition “On the Verge of Insanity,” which opens here on Friday and runs through Sept. 25, along with previously unexhibited documents and artifacts that try to provide more detailed evidence about van Gogh’s mental illness.这封信和这张图首次在梵高物馆(Van Gogh Museum)的展览“濒临疯狂”(On the Verge of Insanity)中展出。该展览周五在阿姆斯特丹开幕,将持续至9月25日。它还包括之前从未展出过的文件和艺术品,努力提供更多关于梵高精神疾病的具体据。The exhibition will also include about 25 paintings and other objects, like a corroded revolver that van Gogh may have used to kill himself, museum officials say. These will try to explore, in particular, the final stretch of his life while his troubles escalated, from the ear-cutting incident to July 29, 1890, when he apparently committed suicide in Auvers-sur-Oise, France.物馆的工作人员说,这场展览还将包括大约25件画作和其他物品,比如梵高可能用来自杀的已经腐蚀的左轮手。这些东西将着重探索他人生的最后一程,也就是从割耳事件到1890年7月29日他在法国瓦兹河畔欧韦自杀,期间他的精神疾病越来越严重。The subject of the artist’s mental state has always fascinated people who admire his art, but until now the Van Gogh Museum, which contains the largest collection of his work in the world, has not directly addressed the subject. Until recently, the museum has focused on van Gogh’s aesthetic and technical progression, but interest in his biography is driving a different approach to exhibitions.这位艺术家的精神状况一直令仰慕他艺术作品的人着迷,不过直到现在,梵高物馆都没有直接探索过这个主题。梵高物馆是世界上收藏梵高作品最多的地方。直到不久前,该物馆依然重点关注梵高的美学和技术成长,不过对他生平的兴趣正开启一种不同的展览方式。“This is really the start of a new series of small, focused exhibitions, which will only take one floor of the building but will enable us to give the visitors more information about van Gogh’s life,” said Nienke Bakker, curator of paintings for the Van Gogh Museum and curator of this exhibition. “This seemed for us to be the perfect subject to start with.”“这真的是一系列新的小型专题展览的开端,它将只占一个楼层,不过将给观众带来更多关于梵高生平的信息,”梵高物馆的绘画策展人宁克·巴克(Nienke Bakker)说。他也是这场展览的策展人。“我们觉得这个主题似乎是个完美的开端。”Ms. Bakker said that most museum visitors wanted to know the details of van Gogh’s life: “The three most frequently asked questions are: What happened with his ear? What kind of illness did he have? and, Why did he commit suicide?”巴克说,大部分物馆观众想知道梵高人生的一些细节:“最常问的三个问题是:他的耳朵到底怎么了?他有什么疾病?他为什么自杀?”The exhibition coincides with the release of the book, “Van Gogh’s Ear: The True Story,” by Ms. Murphy.展览进行之时,正好是墨菲的书《梵高的耳朵:真实的故事》(Van Gogh’s Ear: The True Story)出版之际。Steven Naifeh, an American historian and author of the 2011 “Van Gogh: The Life,” said in an email after looking at the new document, “I was willing to give them the benefit of the doubt, that they had indeed found new information from Rey, but it is not new, and it is not credible.”美国历史学家史蒂文·奈菲(Steven Naifeh)2011年曾出版《梵高传》(Van Gogh: The Life)。他在看完这份新文件后在电子邮件中写道:“我本来真心以为他们从雷伊那里找到了新东西,可惜它不是新信息,也不可靠。”In his biography, Mr. Naifeh argues that witnesses who saw van Gogh after Dr. Rey, including his brother Theo’s wife, Johanna van Gogh-Bonger, the artist Paul Signac and van Gogh’s doctor in Auvers-sur-Oise, Dr. Paul Gachet, said that the entire ear was not missing.奈菲在自己的传记中声称,在雷伊之后见过梵高的人都说割掉的不是整只耳朵,他们包括梵高弟弟西奥(Theo)的妻子约翰娜·梵高-邦格尔(Johanna van Gogh-Bonger)、艺术家保罗·西尼亚克(Paul Signac)以及梵高在瓦兹河畔欧韦的医生保罗·加谢(Paul Gachet)。They all “saw a portion of the mutilated ear remaining — so much, in fact, that, when Vincent was seen from face-on, the damage could go unnoticed,” Mr. Naifeh wrote. “Dr. Gachet, who saw Vincent in Auvers in 1890, made a very detailed etching of the artist’s mutilated ear at that time showing that the entire pinna (outer portion) of the ear was not taken off, but the missing portion was more than just a lobe.”奈菲写道,他们都“看到部分耳朵还留着,实际上留下的部分很大,从正面看,根本注意不到耳朵被割过”,“1890年在欧韦见到文森特的加谢非常细致地画出了这位艺术家当时残缺的耳朵,它表明,整个耳廓没被割掉,不过,割掉的部分比耳垂要大”。Various reasons for van Gogh’s self-harm have been given in the past. In Paul Gauguin’s autobiographical novel,“Avant et Après,” he describes a disagreement between him and van Gogh in Arles after Gauguin decided to leave. Gauguin wrote that van Gogh chased him with a razor until Gauguin stopped him, and then van Gogh went home and wounded himself.过去,对于梵高为何自残,可谓众说纷纭。保罗·高更(Paul Gauguin)在自传体小说《此前此后》(Avant et Après)中描述了在阿尔勒,自己决定离开之后与梵高之间发生的争执。高更写道,梵高拿着剃刀追他,直到高更制止了他,然后梵高回到家做出了自残的举动。In her research, Ms. Murphy, who was born in Ireland and has lived in Provence, just outside Arles, for many years, was also able to identify the woman to whom van Gogh gave his ear. She said her name was Gabrielle, a young maid who worked in a brothel. She suffered for many years, Ms. Murphy said, with being called a prostitute because of the contact with van Gogh. According to a local newspaper report, he told her, “Keep this object carefully,” and she immediately fainted.墨菲出生于爱尔兰,在普罗旺斯住了很多年,就住在阿尔勒郊外。她在研究中还弄清了梵高把自己的耳朵交给了哪个女人。她说,那个女人名叫加布丽埃勒(Gabrielle),是在一家妓院打工的年轻女仆。墨菲说,由于跟梵高的接触,她被称为,这让她痛苦了很多年。当地报纸的一篇报道称,他对她说“好好保管这个东西”,随即她晕了过去。“There’s something semireligious to the way he offers a part of his body to repair a part of her body,” Ms. Murphy said at a preview of the exhibition. “She had a nasty scar on her body, and it’s as if he’s giving her fresh flesh.”“他奉上自己身体的一部分用于修补她身体的一部分,这带有半宗教的意味,”墨菲预展上说,“她身上有一块难看的伤疤,他像是在给予她鲜肉。”Ms. Bakker now says she thinks this was the delirious, unconscious behavior that became characteristic of van Gogh’s series of mental breakdowns. Van Gogh had no recollection of the events surrounding the ear episode, and said his memories of his actions during breakdowns were usually vague. In the hospital after the ear episode, he was ashamed to learn what he had done, and immediately put himself in the care of Dr. Rey.巴克现在说,她认为这种精神错乱、神志不清的行为,是梵高一系列精神崩溃的表现特征。梵高对割耳前后的事情没有任何记忆,他说自己对精神崩溃时各种行为的记忆通常是模糊的。他割耳后在医院里得知自己的行为后感到很羞愧,立即让雷伊医生进行处理。Van Gogh’s fame has always been linked to his complicated biography, and particularly to his madness. “The fact that 5-year-old children know who Vincent van Gogh is is partly because of this mangling of his ear,” Mr. Naifeh said in a phone interview. “If you were going to cite just a few facts about his life, this would be one of them.”梵高的名声总是与他复杂的人生联系在一起,尤其是他的疯狂。“连5岁小孩都知道文森特·梵高是谁,一个原因是他割掉了自己的耳朵,”奈菲在电话采访中说,“如果你只能着重讲他人生的几件事,这一件肯定包括在内。”Many have tried to guess what kind of mental illness van Gogh had. Some suppose he may have had temporal lobe epilepsy, which can lead to seizures, erratic behavior and loss of consciousness, while others believe his symptoms were more similar to bipolar disorder. Ms. Murphy said she thought it might have been a combination of the two. During the exhibition, the museum will host a symposium with doctors weighing in on the matter.很多人试图猜测梵高得的是哪种精神疾病。有些人猜测他可能得的是颞叶癫痫,这可能导致突然发作、各种反常行为和意识丧失,也有人认为他的症状更接近躁郁症。墨菲说,她认为可能是两者兼而有之。趁着这次展览,物馆还将举办一场研讨会,请医生们参与讨论。“We’ve been studying all these diagnoses that have been put forward in the 126 years since his death,” Ms. Bakker said. “Of course, it’s very hard to diagnose a person who is dead and has been dead a long time. We know what the symptoms were, because he was describing them in his own letters. He says he has hallucinations, that he’s speaking incoherently, that he doesn’t know what he’s doing.”“我们研究了他去世后126年里人们给出的所有诊断,”巴克说,“当然,诊断一个已经死去很长时间的人非常困难。我们知道他的症状,因为他在信中有所描述。他说自己产生幻觉,说话语无伦次,不知道自己在干什么。”Exhibited for the first time are a police report on van Gogh’s incident in Arles, and a petition by van Gogh’s neighbors there in 1889, which asked the city’s mayor to institutionalize the artist. Dr. Rey’s letter and drawing of van Gogh’s severed ear will be displayed next to the artist’s portrait of Dr. Rey, painted in January 1889 and given to the doctor as thanks for his care.首次展出的物品包括关于梵高在阿尔勒事故的警方报告,以及1889年梵高邻居们的请愿书——他们要求市长把这位艺术家关进精神病院。雷伊的信以及梵高割下的耳朵的草图,将与这位艺术家给雷伊画的肖像并置展示。那幅肖像是1889年1月梵高为了感谢这位医生而创作并赠送给他的。The goal of the exhibition is not to link the artwork to his mental state but rather to make clear that van Gogh was struggling to work despite a debilitating illness.这场展览的目的不是把他的艺术作品与他的精神状态联系在一起,而是想表明,虽然梵高身患令人衰弱的疾病,但仍在奋力工作。“It’s not the case that he was having these hallucinations and painting them,” Ms. Bakker said. “A lot of people still think that. It’s amazing the amount of art he was able to create, especially considering that there were sometimes quite long periods when he wasn’t able to work.”“他并不是把自己的幻觉画了下来,”巴克说,“很多人依然是这么认为的。令人惊叹的是,他能创作出那么多艺术作品,尤其是考虑到有时他有相当长的时间都无法工作。” /201607/454552These two pictures illustrate the extraordinary way that women#39;s bodies have changed in the last 60 years.上面两幅图显示了近60年来女性身材发生了惊人的变化。In 1957, the average-sized British woman was 5ft 2ins tall, weighed 9st 10lbs, had size 3 feet and was a dress size 12.1957年,普通身材的英国女性身高为5英尺2英寸(约1.57米),体重为9英石10磅(约61公斤),鞋码为3(相当于国内36码),衣尺码为12。She had a petite figure, with a slim waist of 28 inches and 34B breasts. Miss Average was expected to live 73 years and earned just £10 a week.当时的女性大多身材娇小,腰围仅28英寸(约71厘米),胸围34B。女性平均寿命为73岁,每周工资只有10英镑。But flash forward 60 years and the shape of the typical British woman has changed dramatically - most strikingly in her waist and breasts.时光飞逝,60年后,英国女性的典型身材却发生了巨大的变化,腰和胸部尤其明显。The 2017 version of Miss Average is 5ft 5in, weighs 11st, wears a dress size 16 and has a shoe size of 6.2017年,女性平均身高为5英尺5英寸(约1.65米),平均体重为11英石(约69公斤),衣尺码为16,鞋码为6(相当于国内39码)。Her bust has shot up more than any other part of her anatomy to a more shapely 36DD and her waistline has increased by six inches to 34 inches.胸围是女性身体变化最为明显的部位,涨到了更加有曲线的36DD,腰围涨到了34英寸,涨了6英寸。Her life expectancy has shot up, too, by 10 years to 83 years and she is earning an average £530 a week.女性平均寿命也延长了10年,达到83岁,如今的周薪为530镑。The graphics showing the difference in today#39;s Miss Average with the 1957 version were put together by the lingerie brand Bluebella, which researched data on changing body shapes from government statistics.内衣品牌Bluebella将当今女性平均身材的图片和1957年女性平均身材的图片放在一起,显示出两者的差异。该品牌通过分析政府的统计资料研究身材变化情况。Hollywood beauty Natalie Wood - one of the biggest stars of 1957 having just appeared in iconic movies Rebel Without a Cause and The Searchers - had the same 34B bust size and body shape of the average woman 60 years ago.娜塔利?伍德是1957年好莱坞最著名的女影星之一,她出演了经典电影《无因的反叛》和《日落狂沙》。其34B的胸围和体型正是60年前的女性标准身材。Meanwhile reality TV star Kim Kardashian#39;s surgically enhanced 36DD bust is the same size as the average 2017 woman.然而,真人秀女星金?卡戴珊整形过的36DD大胸才是2017年的女性标准尺寸。Bluebella chief executive Emily Bendell said that 2017#39;s Miss Average was far more body conscious that her 1957 equivalent.Bluebella 的首席执行官艾米莉?本戴尔认为,现在的女性比以往更注重自己的体型。She said: #39;She is likely to exercise at least twice a week - consuming 2,300 calories a day compared to 1,800 calories back then.她说:“现在女性可能每周至少运动两次,每天消耗2300卡路里,相比之下,过去只有1800卡路里。”#39;She is much healthier than her Fifties counterpart and devotes around 30% more of her income to her wardrobe.“现在的女性比上世纪50年代的女性健康得多,在装上的开销也比过去增加了30%。”#39;This is reflected in the size of her lingerie collection which is twice the size of 1950s woman. She now has an average of 12 bras compared to just six in the 1950s.#39;“拿内衣数量来说,如今女性拥有的内衣数量是曾经的两倍,平均每人有12件胸罩,而上世纪50年代的女性只有6件。”Bendell said the fashion industry has had to adapt fast to the changing shape of Miss Average.本戴尔还认为,时装业需要紧跟普通女性身材的变化。#39;It is extraordinary how much Miss Average has changed over the last 60 years,#39; she said.她说:“近60年来,女性体型发生的改变很惊人。”#39;She has changed from being quite petite with what would be considered quite small breasts by today#39;s standards to a much more fuller figured silhouette.“女性的身材已经从娇小玲珑变得更加丰满,以现在的标准看,之前大部分女性的胸部过小。”#39;That has presented real challenges for designers and lingerie brands. At Bluebella we are creating lingerie and nightwear collections to reflect this changing body shape from stylishly chic everyday pieces to show-stopping provocative pieces designed to inspire and empower.“这给设计师和内衣品牌带来不小的挑战。Bluebella生产的内衣和睡衣系列紧跟这一女性身材变化,从时尚别致的日常着装,到吸引眼球的诱人饰,Bluebella的设计为女性增添魅力。”#39;Today#39;s women see lingerie and nightwear as fashion crossover pieces, a trend not seen back in the 1950s.#39;“当代女性认为内衣和睡衣也是一种时尚衣着,这种潮流是在上世纪50年代是看不到的。” /201704/505426Most mothers in China feel they are happier after having a second child, according to a survey report released a year after the country relaxed its family planning policy.我国放宽计划生育政策已满一年。近日发布的一项调查报告显示,国内大多数妈妈在生育二孩以后,幸福感有所提升。The report was based on an online survey of about 4,200 mothers with two children.该报告是基于对约4200名有两个孩子的妈妈进行的网络调查得出的。The survey found that about 63% of the respondents said they were happier after the birth of their second child, and 67% said they did not regret having another baby.这项调查发现,约63%的受访者表示,二孩降生后她们感到更加幸福,67%的人表示不后悔要二孩。The major reasons given for the increase in happiness after a second child included seeing their children play together and the fact that some couples now had both a boy and a girl.报告指出,二孩到来使幸福感增加的主因包括看到子女可以一起玩耍、一些夫妇如今儿女双全等。Nearly half of the mothers also said their husbands were more willing to help take care of the children after the second child, according to the report.近半妈妈还表示,二孩出生后,丈夫更愿意帮忙照看孩子了。The survey also found some factors that caused unhappiness after a second child, such as the economic burden and the extra pressure resulting from the need to devote more time and energy.不过,该调查也发现,二孩出生后也带来了一些不好的情况,比如由于需要投入更多的时间和精力而造成的经济负担和额外的压力。 /201703/495287

Has the tide of globalisation turned? This is a vitally important question. 全球化进程转向了吗?这是一个极其重要的问题。The answer is closely connected to the state of the world economy and the west’s politics.与全球经济和西方政治状况密切相关。Migration raises quite specific issues. 移民提出一些非常特殊的问题。The era of globalisation was not accompanied by a general commitment to liberalising flows of people. 各国并未在全球化时代普遍承诺实现人员自由流动。So I will focus here on trade and capital flows. 因此,我这里将主要谈谈贸易和资本流动。The evidence in these areas seems quite clear. 这些领域的据似乎非常清晰。Globalisation has reached a plateau and, in some areas, is in reverse.全球化已遭遇瓶颈,并且在某些领域发生了逆转。An analysis from the Peterson Institute for International Economics argues that ratios of world trade to output have been flat since 2008, making this the longest period of such stagnation since the second world war. 华盛顿彼得森国际经济研究所(Peterson Institute for International Economics)的分析认为,自2008年以来世界贸易与产值的比例几乎没有发生变化,从而成为自二战以来此类停滞持续时间最长的一段时期。According to Global Trade Alert, even the volume of world trade stagnated between January 2015 and March 2016, though the world economy continued to grow. 据全球贸易预警组织(Global Trade Alert)表示,全球贸易规模甚至在2015年1月至2016年3月期间也出现了停滞,尽管全球经济继续增长。The stock of cross-border financial assets peaked at 57 per cent of global output in 2007, falling to 36 per cent by 2015. 跨境金融资产存量与全球产值的比例在2007年达到57%的峰值,到2015年降至36%。Finally, inflows of foreign direct investment have remained well below the 3.3 per cent of world output attained in 2007, though the stock continues to rise, albeit slowly, relative to output.最后,外商直接投资(fdi)流入与全球产值比例依然远低于2007年的3.3%,尽管该比例还在缓慢增长。Thus, the impetus towards further economic integration has stalled and in some respects gone into reverse. 因此,进一步经济一体化的动力停滞,甚至在某些方面还发生了逆转。Globalisation is no longer driving world growth. 全球化不再推动世界增长。If this process is indeed coming to an end, or even going into reverse, it would not be the first time since the industrial revolution, in the early 19th century. 如果全球化进程真的趋于结束、乃至发生逆转,这将不是自19世纪初工业革命以来的首次。Another period of globalisation, in an era of empires, occurred in the late 19th century. 另一次全球化发生在19世纪末的帝国时代。The first world war ended this and the Great Depression destroyed it. 第一次世界大战让那次全球化进程停止,大萧条(Great Depression)则完全摧毁了它。A principal focus of US economic and foreign policy after 1945 was to recreate the global economy, but this time among sovereign states and guided by international economic institutions. 美国经济和外交政策在1945年之后主要致力于重新构建全球经济,但此次全球化是主权国家之间开展的,并受到国际经济组织的指导。If Donald Trump, who has embraced protectionism and denigrated global institutions, were to be elected president in November, it would be a repudiation of a central thrust of postwar US policy.如果今年11月持保护主义并诋毁全球机构的唐纳德#8226;特朗普(Donald Trump)当选为美国总统,战后的美国政策核心将会遭到否定。Given the historical record and the current politics of trade, notably in the US, it is natural to ask whether the same could happen to the more recent era of globalisation. 鉴于历史记录以及当前围绕贸易的政治纷争(尤其是在美国),人们自然会问,如今的这个全球化时代是否会重蹈覆辙。That requires us to understand the drivers.这需要我们理解背后的驱动因素。Part of the reason for the slowdown is that many opportunities are, if not exhausted, radically diminished. 全球化步伐放缓的部分原因在于,许多机遇即便不是完全消失,也是急剧减少。When, for example, the production of essentially all labour-intensive manufactures has moved out of the rich countries, the growth of trade in such products must fall. 例如,当基本上所有的劳动密集型制造商都将生产搬离富裕国家的时候,此类产品的贸易增长必定下降。Similarly, when the biggest investment boom in the history of the world, that in China, slows, so too must the demand for many commodities. 同样,当全球历史上最大的投资热潮(发生在中国)放缓的时候,许多大宗商品的需求也必定下降。That will affect both their prices and their quantities. 这将会影响它们的价格和数量。Again, the end of once-in-a-lifetime global credit boom is sure to lead to a decline in the cross-border holdings of financial assets. 还有,一生一遇的全球信贷热潮的结束,当然会导致跨境金融资产持有量的下降。Finally, after decades of FDI, a host of companies with something to gain from it will have taken their opportunity and succeeded or, in important cases, failed.最后,在数十年的外商直接投资之后,可从中受益的许多公司应该已经抓住机遇并取得成功了或者(在某些重要情况下)失败了。Yet this is not all there is to this story. 然而,这并不是故事的全部。Trade liberalisation has stalled and one can see a steady rise in protectionist measures. 贸易自由化已经停滞,人们可以看到保护主义举措日益增多。The financial crisis brought with it regulatory measures, many of which are bound to slow cross-border financial flows. 此次金融危机催生了监管举措,其中许多举措肯定会减缓跨境资金流动。The rise of xenophobic sentiment and the slowdown in trade are both likely to reduce the growth of FDI. 排外情绪上升和贸易放缓全都可能减缓外商直接投资的增长。In brief, policy is less supportive.简言之,政策持度下降。The politics are becoming even less so. 政治方面的持度下降得更厉害。Again, the US is the central part of the story. 美国再次处于故事核心。Mr Trump is much the most protectionist candidate for US president since the 1930s. 特朗普是上世纪30年代以来最具保护主义色的美国总统候选人。But, revealingly, Hillary Clinton, an architect of the US pivot to Asia has turned against the Trans-Pacific Partnership, of which she was once a keen supporter. 但颇能说明问题的是,制定美国重返亚洲战略的希拉里#8226;克林顿(Hillary Clinton)开始反对《跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》(TPP)。The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, being negotiated between the US and the EU, is now in deep trouble. 美国和欧盟正在谈判的《跨大西洋贸易与投资伙伴关系协定》(Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, TTIP)现在深陷困境。The Doha round of multilateral trade negotiations is moribund. 多哈回合的多边贸易谈判奄奄一息。Above all, important segments of the western public no longer believes increased trade benefits them. 最重要的是,西方民众中的一些重要群体不再相信增加贸易会让他们受益。Evidence on relative real incomes and adjustment to rising imports provides some support for such scepticism.相对实际收入和对进口日益增长的适应方面的据,为此类怀疑提供了一些持。Thus, globalisation has at best stalled. 因此,全球化往好里说也是出现了停滞。Could it even go into reverse? Yes. 它可能会发生逆转吗?是肯定的。Globalisation requires peace among the great powers. 全球化需要大国之间保持和平。Some would also argue it requires a hegemonic power: the UK before 1914 and the US after 1945. 一些人还会说,全球化需要一个霸权国家:1914年前的英国和1945年后的美国。At a time of poor economic performance in leading high-income countries, rising inequality and big shifts in the balance of global power, another collapse must be a possibility. 在主要高收入国家经济表现疲弱、不平等加剧以及全球力量平衡发生重大转变之际,全球化完全有可能再次崩溃。Consider the impact of any fighting between the US and China over the South China Sea, though such a calamity would be terrifying for far more than its narrow economic effects.想想假如美中围绕南中国海发生任何冲突会带来什么影响吧,尽管那样的灾难性事件让人不寒而栗之处将远不止是它对经济领域的影响。Does globalisation’s stalling matter? Yes. 全球化停滞重要吗?是肯定的。The era of globalisation has seen the first fall in global inequality of household incomes since the early 19th century. 在全球化时代,全球家庭收入不平等出现了自19世纪初以来的首次下降。Between 1980 and 2015, average global real income rose by 120 per cent. 从1980年到2015年,全球平均实际收入增长了120%。The opportunities afforded by globalisation are vital. 全球化提供的机遇非常重要。Our future cannot lie in closing ourselves off from one another.彼此封闭起来不可能有未来。The failure — a profound one — lies in not ensuring that gains were more equally shared, notably within high-income economies. 全球化的(重大)错误在于没有确保更平等地分享益处,尤其是在高收入经济体内部。Equally dismal was the failure to cushion those adversely affected. 同样令人遗憾的是,全球化未能保护那些遭受不利影响的人群、努力减轻他们所受的冲击。But we cannot stop economic change. 但我们无法让经济变化停止。Moreover, the impact on jobs and wages of rising productivity and new technologies has far exceeded that of rising imports. 此外,生产率增长和新技术对就业和薪资的影响,远远超过进口增长的影响。Globalisation must not be made a scapegoat for all our ills.我们不能把所有的问题都怪到全球化头上。Yet it has now stalled, as have the policies driving it. 然而,如今全球化已经停滞,驱动全球化的政策同样如此。It might reverse. 它还可能发生逆转。Yet even a stalling would slow economic progress and reduce opportunities for the world’s poor. 全球化即便只是停滞,也会让经济进步变慢,并减少全球穷人的机遇。Pushing globalisation forward requires different domestic and external policies from those of the past. 推动全球化前进需要不同以往的国内和外部政策。Globalisation’s future depends on better management. 全球化的未来取决于管理的改善。Will that happen? Alas, I am not optimistic.这种改善可能实现吗?反正我不乐观。 /201609/465598

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